What next? Dissolution would serve only Smer
Preserving the current coalition, early elections or a Smer-SD and SNS coalition supported by certain deputies? These are all possible scenarios if HZDS does not back down and sacrifice "its" Agriculture Minister Miroslav Jureňa in the interest of saving the coalition. If Smer's threats stand up, the possibility exists that ĽS-HZDS could be excluded from the government. "Each of these variants is open," according to Smer-SD deputy Boris Zala. At the same time however he stated that for the party it is of primary concern that the coalition not fall apart -- but HZDS must back down. In his opinion the coalition can remain in force only on the condition that the affair surrounding the Slovak Land Fund is put to rest, and that their coalition partner understands that it must not be repeated. Smer Vice-chairman and Interior Minister Robert Kaliňák, in response to the question if the party is prepared to see the coalition dissolve, answered, "that would be one solution of the problem".
Veteška with Smer?
According to political scientist Miroslav Kusý, such self-confidence on the part of Smer-SD suggests that the Premier has a secret variant for the coalition's future: "It is possible that HZDS could break up, as we've already witnessed in the past, and Smer would gain the support of the part of the members around Viliam Veteška." According to parliamentary mathematics, Roberta Fico's party, together with their SNS partners, has 69 seats at the present time,-- so they would need a further seven to hold their government majority. So far only MP Tibor Mikuš has declared himself on Veteška's side, and is also known to support Fico - at least as concerns the issue of confidence in Jureňa. On the other hand, HZDS deputy Ján Kovarčík doesn't fear a split within the movement: "I can guarantee that our members would not do something like that."
Also floated is the possibility that Smer may replace HZDS with KDH. Indeed, one wing of the Christian Democrats favoured entering the Smer government following the 2006 elections, but the problem was the presence of Vladimír Mečiar. "That Smer might play this card cannot be ruled out," according to political commentator Grigorij Mesežnikov. He personally is convinced that KDH would not agree to such a proposal, citing Pavol Abrhan, the KDH General Secretary - "Smer has already made its decision. It has its coalition partners, and it must bear the consequences." He maintains that if Smer came calling, they would not answer the door. Analyst Kusý goes farther and discounts such a move towards any opposition party on the part of Smer -- "They couldn't carry out their socialist program with them".
HZDS against elections
In the case that early parliamentary elections were called, analysts suggest that ĽS-HZDS would fare the worst. While at the moment Smer-SD is enjoying 40-percent public support, the Movement for a Democratic Slovakia is seeing a sliding away of the disappointingly low support it won in 2006. In November's ÚVVM poll for the SR Statistical Office, it had only 8,6 percent -- while two months ago, HZDS backing stood at 12,3 percent. "A total debacle would be waiting for the Mečiar party," Kusý believes. This would reflect not only their current low ratings, but also the fact that if they were to leave the government due to this present conflict, they would bear the responsibility for the fall of the government. Smer-SD on the other hand would be seen as the winner, a position which MP Zala says the party is aware of. He repeats however that they do not wish to break up the present coalition. ĽS-HZDS is also aware that their optimal variant is to continue in the coalition. Vice-chairman Milan Urbáni accordingly rejects any talk of bringing down the government, and insists that further negotiations will rectify the situation.
SNS, the third coalition partner, is standing clear. Their poll numbers are stable and they do not wish to become involved in the land issue. November 22
Court clears J&T financiers
A Bratislava Regional Court judge yesterday rejected an appeal from a minority shareholder against the J&T Asset Management firm, which administered the Reštitučný otvorený podielový fond (Restitution Open Share Fund). In 2003 J&T Asset Management sold the three percent of the shares in Slovenská sporiteľna under its administration to Poštová banka and Prvá Penzijná, of the Istrokapitál group, for 1 700 crowns per share. A few months later, after a series of further transfers, these same shares were purchased by the Austrian Erste Bank from an unknown Cypriot firm, Rouko Trading, for twice this price. Thus the Fund, and so its shareholders, earned 280 million crowns less than if the sporiteľna shares had been sold directly to Erste.
The Court decision, which did not confirm the accusation that J&T Asset Management tunnelled the fund it administered, is in conflict with the opinion of the Financial Market Bureau, which in early 2004 concluded that J & T had breached the collective investing law. This they allegedly did by not seeking out a buyer which would have maximized the price of the shares. At that time, the administrator did not appeal against the fine set by the Office, the largest in the history of the financial market, but paid up, as did ČSOB, which, as depositary, should have supervised the J&T Asset Management activities.
November 21